Evolutionary characteristics and influencing factors of non-grain of cultivated land in main grain-producing areas-A case study of Lianyungang City, China

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Environmental Science
• Spatial Analysis

Background:

• Non-grain cultivation of agricultural land is a growing concern in major food-producing regions.
• Understanding its evolution and drivers is crucial for sustainable agriculture and national food security.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the spatial-temporal evolution of non-grain cultivated land in Lianyungang City.
• To reveal the driving mechanisms behind this land-use change.
• To formulate targeted regulation strategies for sustainable land management.

Main Methods:

• Remote sensing image interpretation for land cover classification.
• Spatial autocorrelation analysis (Moran's I) to assess spatial patterns.
• Geographically weighted regression model to identify driving factors.

Main Results:

• Non-grain cultivation increased from 6.01% to 11.10% (2002-2022), shifting to vegetables, construction, and abandonment.
• Spatial patterns showed a weakening trend, with Moran's I decreasing from 0.90 to 0.42.
• GDP, population density, NDVI, and precipitation were consistent key drivers, influenced by household resources, location, and policy.

Conclusions:

• Non-grain land evolution is driven by a complex interplay of factors.
• Differentiated zoning regulation strategies are proposed based on factor dominance.
• Findings offer a reference for cultivated land protection and agricultural management in similar regions.