Global efforts addressing methane emissions is a key factor to further reducing ozone-induced yield losses of crops in Europe

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Agricultural Science
• Atmospheric Chemistry

Background:

• Ozone, a significant air pollutant, negatively impacts global crop yields, particularly wheat.
• Methane and non-methane compounds are key precursors to ground-level ozone formation.
• Previous assessments have not fully quantified the potential of emission reductions to mitigate crop losses.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify potential avoided wheat production losses globally and regionally by reducing ozone precursor emissions.
• To assess the impact of reducing non-methane and methane emissions on wheat yields.
• To compare the benefits of regional versus global emission reduction strategies.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - West (EMEP-MSC-West) model.
• Performed ex-post analysis on future emission scenarios (LOW scenario) for 2050.
• Compared emission reduction scenarios against a current legislation baseline.

Main Results:

• Reducing global non-methane ozone precursors could avoid 6.4 million tonnes of wheat loss in the UNECE region by 2050.
• Further reductions including methane could avoid a total of 9.0 million tonnes of wheat loss in the UNECE region.
• Within the EU27, these reductions correspond to approximately €675 million and €976 million, respectively.

Conclusions:

• Global efforts to reduce ozone precursor emissions offer substantial potential for preventing wheat production losses.
• Reducing both non-methane and methane emissions globally is crucial for maximizing agricultural benefits.
• Regional and global strategies for emission control provide comparable benefits in mitigating crop yield losses due to ozone formation.